I Was Way Too Confident About This

start collecting reasons why our assumption must be correct. The more confident we become, the harder it can be to notice the details that contradict us.

In my case, theconsequence was pretty harmless: no free popcorn.

But the experience was still a good reminder of how unreliable confidence can be when it’s built on a single clue.

Sometimes the thing that feels obvious is only obvious because we’ve seen something similar before.

And sometimes, all it takes is one color to make us feel certain about something we haven’t actually figured out.

So the next time I see a wall